CPEC – A Dream or Reality?

By now, all of you have read and watched the details of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project and the arrival of first consignment at Gawadar on November 13, 2016. Yes, we all Pakistani are super excited for the start of this journey. At the same time, some of us are trying to highlight the cons attached to this mega project. Today, I am just going to discuss some reactions of the people as expressed on famous platforms and what can we deduce from them.

Before I start the discussion, let us have a look what CPEC means to an average Pakistani, who has been living and surviving in extreme living conditions.

 

Now, considering the enormity of the project and also keeping in view the bilateral relations between China and Pakistan; it is but natural to observe a high-level praise and festivity all around. In the present times, the internet using world has become “social media warriors”, therefore it is natural to see people’s reactions on Facebook and Twitter.

In the newspapers, the same event has been reported with seriousness and decorum. Mostly the facts were stated. The PM Nawaz Sharif was seen hailing the project as “historic”, saying that CPEC has opened “a world of opportunities,” which will result in harmony, balance and peace in the region.

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What CPEC Really Is?

In layman terms, it is an economic ‘corridor’ that is going to connect China; through Pakistan, to the Middle East and Africa. Financially speaking it’s a mammoth project with an investment of almost 46 billion US$ by China and providing benefits to Pakistan along the route. Politically speaking, CPEC is a thorn in eye for some nations and source of vested interest for others. Socially speaking, the gullible Pakistanis view it as the dawn of progress in the country.

Considering all the above positivity; there seem to be gaps in the overall blueprint of the project which doesn’t make sense when comes to such a highly financed project.

To start with, the massive amount of 46 billion US dollars sounds disturbing. The open journalistic investigation has not given away much. All the projects related to CPEC are not able to give the exact finances involved from both sides of the government. Chinese officials have been careful in discussing about the holistic project, but they lay emphasis only on the projects that are in the process of implementation. The independent sources have estimated them to be around 14 billion US$. It is argued that since CPEC is an ongoing process and there will be many projects in the pipeline, therefore it is difficult to outline each and every project. But there has to be some blueprint, that at least has not been made public by Chinese officials. Of course, Pakistani officials have failed time and again to come up with a sensible statement.

The total distance covered in this route is about 3000 km, with railways, highways and pipelines. The term “corridor” in CPEC can and must be taken literally. As corridor is just a passage and not a place to stay, therefore it becomes difficult for a questioning-mind like mine to accept the metaphorical use of word. It has a very discomforting resonance. The land route with railways and highways might not be much beneficial for Pakistan. In this regard, only, the ‘corridor’ will be used in its literal term – a passage to transport goods from Xinjiang to Gawadar. The real potential of benefit and impact on Pakistan will only be substantial if there will be industrial projects along the route, which are again not disclosed to the public as yet.

Pakistani government and military already seem to be locked in a conflict. As the military is responsible in aiding the construction of projects and providing the safe path to the trade activities, therefore, it is but natural to have a greater share and funds but government officials seem to be working on a different agenda.

World’s Reaction to CPEC

International community has a mixed reaction towards CPEC. The neighboring countries like India, Afghanistan are very skeptical about this project and their national media have reported accordingly.

For instance, Indian newspaper, The Indian Express; mentioned the news as follows:

Al-Jazeera made a headline as follows:

Russian researcher has observed that CPEC will be a “game-changer for the region,” and French paper reported, “France taking more interest in Pakistan due to CPEC.”

Amazingly, the project has received very loud repercussions from the neighboring countries. Indian PM had been very vocal stressing that project will only succeed in aiding Pakistan’s “terroristic” activities (India’s insistent allegation without any solid proof).

Pakistan and China have always enjoyed very healthy mutually beneficial relationship for a long time. This project should not have come as a surprise or a source of ‘front-page headlines’ by international media but it has happened. It is understandable to accept a negative response from India but focus from the world has already highlighted the fact that this project is not just a trade route. So much so that a Pakistani federal minister was observed saying that total estimate of the project has been increased to 51.5 billion US$ after an agreement with the Asian Development Bank for the railways.

Controversy Theories:

1. Pakistan planning ministry have asked for 350 billion from CPEC funds and they are given 124 billion US$. Almost all of it is dedicated to the development of roads and not on the power production, which has created suspicion among Indian officials.
2. Pakistan’s government’s behavior is strange. As the project is labelled as ‘a game-changer’, then why the Sharif government was willing to allot only 13 billion rupees for power projects.
3. Despite all the opposition from all directions, the only project government is seriously interested in, is the Lahore Metro. There are even cases against the project and even UN representatives have considered it harmful on various grounds.
4. Due to the crucial Pakistan military role in implementing CPEC, therefore they demanded more institutional role, which was denied by the government. In May 2016, General Raheel Shrif went to Beijing and succeeded in “wedging the army into institutional roles in internal security and economic development, it would appear that the Chinese, at least implicitly, are backing the army to get CPEC moving faster.”; as observed by Satyabrat Pal (former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan)
5. Indian lobby has created delusions based on the conflict between Pakistani government and military. They are propagating, due to Pakistan’s history with terrorism; it will not be long when Pakistan will put all the blame in case of any future attack on Chinese people or CPEC.

CPEC for Pakistani Nation:

Being an emotional nation and being an entertainment-starved nation, the arrival of Chinese consignment at Gawadar was a moment of pride and fun fair and nobody bothered to check the ground realities. Many people on social media started engaging in dialogues highlighting the achievements of their political leadership.

The true potential and benefits of CPEC will become clearer in the coming years but for the time being, the project has attracted attention from varied classes, from layman to high level bureaucrats. The project in itself is complicated enough and complexities are being added to it from all sides. Let us hope, for the benefit of all that the project will really become a ‘game changer’.